Landslide inventories for climate impacts research in the European Alps

Author's manuscript version. The final published article is available from the publisher via: doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.09.005Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Landslides present a geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions, threatening life, infrastructure and property. Here we present the development of a new regional landslide inventory (RI) for the European Alps. This database provides a substantial temporal and spatial picture of landsliding in the Alps, with particular focus on the Swiss and French Alps. We use segmented models to evaluate recording bias in the temporal record. We use scaling relationships to calculate landslide area based on a given volume for similar types of landslide; with the result of this being that 9.5% of the landslides recorded in the RI now have area data recorded. These landslide area data are then used to examine the log-linear trend, which exists between landslide area and frequency in inventories. We show that this relationship is present for this historical dataset; however, none of the individual databases, nor a unification of these, contain a complete record with the small and larger landslides being recorded more consistently. The use of segmented models on the temporal distribution of landslides in the RI shows that the post-1970 portion of the database is more reliable, highlighted through an improved power-law relationship, although the frequency of medium sized landslides is still underestimated. We show that creating a unified database (RI) can increase the reliability of datasets and consistency in recording for the use by researchers for attribution and detection studies.Lloyds of Londo

Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain

Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of horses is available because the GB National Equine Database records owner, rather than horse, locations. Here, we combine land-use data with available horse owner distributions and, using a Bayesian approach, infer a realistic distribution for the location of horses. We estimate the risk of an outbreak of AHS in GB, using the basic reproduction number (R0), and demonstrate that mapping owner addresses as a proxy for horse location significantly underestimates the risk. We clarify the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts by showing that the risk of disease in the presence of many hosts (susceptible and non-susceptible) can be ultimately reduced to two fundamental factors: first, the abundance of vectors and how this depends on host density, and, second, the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species

From farm to table: exploring food handling and hygiene practices of meat and milk value chain actors in Ethiopia

Livestock value chains constitute a source of livelihood for meat and milk value chain actors in Ethiopia, from dairy farmers to other associated value chain actors such as milk traders, abattoir workers, public health officials, veterinarians, butcheries selling meats, milk cooperatives, artisanal milk processors, and transporters. The development of these livestock value chains, however, is constrained by poor food safety and quality, while consumers are also exposed to public health risks due to milk and meat value chain actors' food handling and hygiene practices.This study used Photovoice and participant observation to explore meat and milk value chain actors' food handling and hygiene practices in suburban areas of Addis Ababa and neighbouring Oromia in Ethiopia. The results of this study reveal that milk and meat value chain actors' food handling practices are not aligned with the recommended Ethiopian food safety and quality standards. Low compliance with food safety and quality standards reflected a combination of factors such as lack of incentives, poor road infrastructure and low enforcement of food safety standards.Participatory and visual research methods enable a researcher to collect context-aware data that can lead to the development of policies and intervention strategies that reflect local needs and priorities. The results of this study affirm the need to identify socially acceptable and economically viable policies and intervention strategies that are acceptable to all chain actors; and suggest there is an imperative to train milk and meat value chain actors on good hygiene handling practices, improve road infrastructure, and facilitate access equipment such as fridges and freezers that can contribute to maintaining food safety and quality

Brucellosis in ruminants and pastoralists in Borena, Southern Ethiopia

Funder: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268; Grant(s): ref: BB/L018977/1Brucellosis is a bacterial zoonotic disease that has important veterinary and public health consequences as well as economic impact in sub Saharan Africa including Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted in four selected districts of Borena Pastoral setting in Southern Ethiopia from October 2017 to February 2018 to estimate the prevalence of brucellosis and assess associated risk factors in cattle, sheep, goats and occupationally associated humans. A total of 750 cattle, 882 sheep and goats and 341 human subjects were screened for evidence of brucellosis using the Rose Bengal Test (RBT) with positive results confirmed by Competitive-ELISA(c-ELISA). Structured questionnaires were used for collection of metadata from individual animals, herders and animal attendants to test the association between explanatory and outcome variables. The overall animal level prevalence was 2.4% (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.4–3.7) in cattle, 3.2% (95% CI: 2.1–4.6) in sheep and goats, and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.2–5) in humans occupationally linked to livestock production systems. Herd size, parity, and history of abortion were risk factors associated with Brucella seropositivity (P<0.05) in cattle whereas in sheep and goats the results showed that district, age group, flock size, and history of abortion were significantly associated risk factors with Brucella seropositivity (P<0.05). Assisting calving and presence of seropositive animals in a household (P<0.05) were significantly associated with Brucella seropositivity in humans. Evidence of brucellosis in various animal species and the associated human population illustrates the need for a coordinated One Health approach to controlling brucellosis so as to improve public health and livestock productivity

Network analysis of dairy cattle movement and associations with bovine tuberculosis spread and control in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia

Abstract: Background: Dairy cattle movement could be a major risk factor for the spread of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. Dairy cattle may be moved between farms over long distances, and hence understanding the route and frequency of the movements is essential to establish the pattern of spread of BTB between farms, which could ultimately help to inform policy makers to design cost effective control strategies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the network structure of dairy cattle movement and its influence on the transmission and prevalence of BTB in three emerging areas among the Ethiopian dairy belts, namely the cities of Hawassa, Gondar and Mekelle. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted in 278 farms to collect data on the pattern of dairy cattle movement for the last 5 years (September 2013 to August 2018). Visualization of the network structure and analysis of the relationship between the network patterns and the prevalence of BTB in these regions were made using social network analysis. Results: The cattle movement network structure display both scale free and small world properties implying local clustering with fewer farms being highly connected, at higher risk of infection, with the potential to act as super spreaders of BTB if infected. Farms having a history of cattle movements onto the herds were more likely to be affected by BTB (OR: 2.2) compared to farms not having a link history. Euclidean distance between farms and the batch size of animals moved on were positively correlated with prevalence of BTB. On the other hand, farms having one or more outgoing cattle showed a decrease on the likelihood of BTB infection (OR = 0.57) compared to farms which maintained their cattle. Conclusion: This study showed that the patterns of cattle movement and size of animal moved between farms contributed to the potential for BTB transmission. The few farms with the bulk of transmission potential could be efficiently targeted by control measures aimed at reducing the spread of BTB. The network structure described can also provide the starting point to build and estimate dynamic transmission models for BTB, and other infectious diseases

Using MGA to shorten the beef breeding season (2002)

Modified conventional synchronization systems for beef cows boost fertility and increase the total number of females that can be inseminated.New March 2002 -- Extension website

Age-dependent patterns of bovine tuberculosis in cattle.

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an important livestock disease, seriously impacting cattle industries in both industrialised and pre-industrialised countries. Like TB in other mammals, infection is life long and, if undiagnosed, may progress to disease years after exposure. The risk of disease in humans is highly age-dependent, however in cattle, age-dependent risks have yet to be quantified, largely due to insufficient data and limited diagnostics. Here, we estimate age-specific reactor rates in Great Britain by combining herd-level testing data with spatial movement data from the Cattle Tracing System (CTS). Using a catalytic model, we find strong age dependencies in infection risk and that the probability of detecting infection increases with age. Between 2004 and 2009, infection incidence in cattle fluctuated around 1%. Age-specific incidence increased monotonically until 24-36 months, with cattle aged between 12 and 36 months experiencing the highest rates of infection. Beef and dairy cattle under 24 months experienced similar infection risks, however major differences occurred in older ages. The average reproductive number in cattle was greater than 1 for the years 2004-2009. These methods reveal a consistent pattern of BTB rates with age, across different population structures and testing patterns. The results provide practical insights into BTB epidemiology and control, suggesting that targeting a mass control programme at cattle between 12 and 36 months could be beneficial.EBP is funded by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) fellowship. JLNW is supported by the Alborada Trust and the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, U.S. National Institutes of Health. AJKC is supported by Defra grant no. SE-3127. TJM is supported by the BBSRC. We thank Steve Holdship and Rose Nicholson at Defra the AHVLA team for providing access to the CTS and VetNet

Potential benefits of cattle vaccination as a supplementary control for bovine tuberculosis

Published onlineJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tVaccination for the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is not currently used within any international control program, and is illegal within the EU. Candidate vaccines, based upon Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) all interfere with the action of the tuberculin skin test, which is used to determine if animals, herds and countries are officially bTB-free. New diagnostic tests that Differentiate Infected from Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) offer the potential to introduce vaccination within existing eradication programs. We use within-herd transmission models estimated from historical data from Great Britain (GB) to explore the feasibility of such supplemental use of vaccination. The economic impact of bovine Tuberculosis for farmers is dominated by the costs associated with testing, and associated restrictions on animal movements. Farmers' willingness to adopt vaccination will require vaccination to not only reduce the burden of infection, but also the risk of restrictions being imposed. We find that, under the intensive sequence of testing in GB, it is the specificity of the DIVA test, rather than the sensitivity, that is the greatest barrier to see a herd level benefit of vaccination. The potential negative effects of vaccination could be mitigated through relaxation of testing. However, this could potentially increase the hidden burden of infection within Officially TB Free herds. Using our models, we explore the range of the DIVA test characteristics necessary to see a protective herd level benefit of vaccination. We estimate that a DIVA specificity of at least 99.85% and sensitivity of >40% is required to see a protective benefit of vaccination with no increase in the risk of missed infection. Data from experimentally infected animals suggest that this target specificity could be achieved in vaccinates using a cocktail of three DIVA antigens while maintaining a sensitivity of 73.3% (95%CI: 61.9, 82.9%) relative to post-mortem detection.This study was funded by Defra project SE3127 and uses nationally collected incidence and cattle-movement data sets held by Defra

Characterisation of the Cullin-3 mutation that causes a severe form of familial hypertension and hyperkalaemia

Deletion of exon 9 from Cullin‐3 (CUL3, residues 403–459: CUL3Δ403–459) causes pseudohypoaldosteronism type IIE (PHA2E), a severe form of familial hyperkalaemia and hypertension (FHHt). CUL3 binds the RING protein RBX1 and various substrate adaptors to form Cullin‐RING‐ubiquitin‐ligase complexes. Bound to KLHL3, CUL3‐RBX1 ubiquitylates WNK kinases, promoting their ubiquitin‐mediated proteasomal degradation. Since WNK kinases activate Na/Cl co‐transporters to promote salt retention, CUL3 regulates blood pressure. Mutations in both KLHL3 and WNK kinases cause PHA2 by disrupting Cullin‐RING‐ligase formation. We report here that the PHA2E mutant, CUL3Δ403–459, is severely compromised in its ability to ubiquitylate WNKs, possibly due to altered structural flexibility. Instead, CUL3Δ403–459 auto‐ubiquitylates and loses interaction with two important Cullin regulators: the COP9‐signalosome and CAND1. A novel knock‐in mouse model of CUL3WT/Δ403–459 closely recapitulates the human PHA2E phenotype. These mice also show changes in the arterial pulse waveform, suggesting a vascular contribution to their hypertension not reported in previous FHHt models. These findings may explain the severity of the FHHt phenotype caused by CUL3 mutations compared to those reported in KLHL3 or WNK kinases

Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

Abstract: Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a 1.63-fold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases